Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 53.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
Doncic fell well short of his usual stellar performance the last time he was on TNT, but that was a game where he was obviously dealing with an illness. In the games since then he’s gotten back to putting up video game numbers on easy mode, going over this prop total in both outings and scoring almost half his team’s points on Tuesday against the Clippers.
Excluding that illness-influenced game a week ago, the other past 9 games for Doncic have seen him average 61.4 on this prop and go 7-2 over tonight’s number. The Lakers are a great opponent for it, as their recent games have been extremely up-tempo with excellent conditions for padding stats. With the motivation of playing in Los Angeles, against LeBron James on national TV, I’m seeing Luka put up another massive game.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): LeBron James Over 46.5 Points+Assists+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Something tells me the king is not going to be outdone on his home floor if Doncic goes wild as I expect him to. LeBron comes into this game well-rested after being cautious with an ankle issue this week. But his recent performances wouldn’t suggest any lingering injury problem.
James has gone over this total in 6 of his past 10 games while putting up 49.2 on average, including 49 against Dallas back on Christmas Day. With his scoring picking up, the floor on this prop rises significantly. But as a do-everything player for a suddenly hot Lakers squad, LeBron should show out for the TNT audience in a great duel with Luka.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Southern Miss/Marshall Under 147 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This total is lined this high because of Marshall being 17th nationally in points per game. While that’s scary to go against, a lot of that offensive success is misleading as it’s been built up against bad teams with very poor defenses. That is not what they’ll face tonight against Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles are 43rd in points allowed and 45th in defensive efficiency. They also slow the pace and defend the interior extremely well.
That’s important because neither the Thundering Herd nor the Golden Eagles like to shoot from deep, so the lack of 3-pointers in this game will help hold down scoring. That’s been the case in Sun Belt play, as these teams are 7-1 under this total in their combined conference games. They’re also a combined 19-11 to the under on the season, so unrealistic totals are the norm for them. With ESPN making a rare appearance on the Marshall campus I’d expect nerves to play a factor as well, and I agree with the models that see this total as a few points too high.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1016-871 ATS (+83.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
每天他将提供锁和退化picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
